Playoff Matchup Wrapup

Before I begin, I'll apologize for my lack of opinion on RBBC teams, such as Washington or Jacksonville. They're tough to predict and would've clogged the entries. Also, I've omitted Larry Johnson until substantial proof of where he'll play this year surfaces. I'll then have a breakdown on what I think, his playoff matchups, etc. But until then it's just too up in the air.

Also, no week 17 predictions, not until week 17 rolls around and I get a clearer picture on who is sitting and who isn't.

I've broken down the following backs into four categories.
Playoff Heroes: The players who can win you championships. Guys who are great backs, who have equally great matchups.
Solid Producers: The second-tier runners(not talent wise, but purely by opponent) who won't destroy your competition by themselves but who have good matchups and can rack up points and win you games when coupled with another solid runner.
Risky Picks: Players who don't have favorable matchups when you need them. Not wise to rely on players like this for fantasy wins.
Rotten Apples: The players who have terrible fantasy playoff opponents. To be avoided like the plague. Don't count on these players to do much but hinder your chances of winning it all.

Good news is, no one runner has three straight unfavorable matchups, though that might be the only plus for some guys. I am also using a scoring system that allows 10 yards receiving or rushing per point, and 6 points per TD. Let's get to it...

-Playoff Heroes-

Steven Jackson
Favorable Matchups: 3 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs CIN-123 yards, 1 TD. 65 yards rec 1 TD = 36pts
vs GB-95 yards 2 TD. 64 yards rec 1 TD = 33 pts
vs PIT-71 yards, 0 TD. 57 yards rec 1 TD = 18pts
Avg Pts per Week: 29

As if there were any fears about drafting Jackson to begin with, let this ease your mind. Where Pittsburgh would usually be a catastrophe for most runners, I can't see Jackson being stopped-he's just too strong for them. Pit can stop quick runners with a 3-4 and quick linebackers, but Jackson can pound the rock along with his speed, and has shown he doesn't wear thin, as he can rack up yardage at the end of the season just like any other span. The only thing to be weary of, is that it is Pittsburgh after all, and while he may rack up about 18 points, it might not be the matchup you were looking for in that ever important championship game. But hey, those are good points, and that's why you have two running backs.


Joseph Addai
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs BAL-68 yards 0 TD. 19 rec yards 0 TD = 7 pts
vs OAK-130 yards, 2 TD. 35 rec yards 0 TD = 28
vs HOU-153 yards 3 TD. 21 rec yards 0 TD = 35 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 28

Addai might well end up the best possible playoff performer on this list. Sure, you and he must endure the dreaded Ravens defense, but there's a reward-The Raiders and Texans defense. I don't know if there's another back with a better set of matchups, short of maybe the next player on the list, but even he doesn't have the luxury of running behind the Colts line and into a soft defense that's only stacking 7, maybe even 6 guys due to the pure terror they feel for Peyton's arm. If Addai rolls around on draft boards, and you're stuck with a choice between him, and a seemingly equal back, let this help you decide.


Rudi Johnson
Fav Matchups: 3 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs STL-156 yards, 2 TD. 17 rec yards, 0 TD = 28pts
vs SF-101 yards,1 TD. 22 rec yards, 0 TD = 18 pts
vs CLE-122 yards, 2 TD. 9 rec yards, 0 TD = 24 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 23

Rudi, who is one of the most consistent backs in fantasy football, looks to have what might be the most consistently easy schedule during your league playoffs. No team can stop the run, and Rudi is a player who dips below 100 yards, or doesn't get a TD, very very rarely. And I have my doubts it'll be against any of these teams. Not this late in the season when he's just running straight at you and draining your will to tackle him. I can't foresee him going below 16 points in any of these games. The Bengals should get good leads on all three teams and Rudi should run the clock down. Don't hesitate on ol' Rudi when his name pops up. If you can't decide between Rudi or Fast Willie, or not-so-fast Willis, I hope this can help you.


Brian Westbrook
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs NYG-88 yards, 2 TD. 65 yards rec 0 TD = 26 pts
vs DAL-64 yards, 0 TD. 38 yards rec, 0 TD. = 9 pts
vs NO-100 yards, 1 TD. 65 rec yards, 1 yd = 28 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 21

I can see Dallas focusing on stopping him and letting the air attack tear them apart, but I can also see the NO game looking like a game of Madden, with both offenses scoring at will. This should be a huge day for Westbrook, who I see breaking off huge runs after catches and lots of runs for big gains. I'm going to say 65 rec yards. If you can pair Westbrook with someone else in this tier, you will have it made.


-Solid Producers-

Travis Henry
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs KC-92 yards, 1 TD. 33 rec yards, 0 TD = 18 pts
vs HOU-127 yards, 2 TD. 27 rec yards 0 TD = 26 pts
vs SD-79 yards, 1 TD. 9 rec yards, 0 TD = 13 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 19 pts

Obviously the only thing holding Henry back is a tough matchup against one of the most difficult teams to run against. Blessed with opponents in KC and Houston who practically give away yards-against, SD won't be so easy. I still see a TD but not alot of yardage, and wihle 13 might be lucky for some, it might be unlucky for you in your most important game. The Broncos will score on the Bolts, and I think it'll be Henry pushing the pile forward with his bowling ball running style. I just see a shootout here and more play action than actual running plays in the second half. Take Henry if you can get a good week 16 matchup in another runner.


Marshawn Lynch
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs MIA-54 yards, 0 TD. 13 rec yards, 0 TD = 6
vs CLE-110 yards, 1 TD. 53 yards rec 1 TD = 28
vs NYG-101 yards, 1 TD. 23 yards rec 0 TD = 18
Avg Pts per Week: 17

I think Lynch is the most NFL-ready back coming out of college, and he may be a real sleeper pick. He will get drafted, yes, but has alot better playoff matchups than some guys who will have their names clicked before his. Miami will be tough, but Cleveland and the Giants could be point factories. I think this late in the year teams will be catching on that Losman-to-Evans isn't a fluke and is a direct result of Lynch occupying most of the front eight's attention. I also see Buffalo getting a lead against CLE and I think NY also.


Brandon Jacobs
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs PHI-64 yards, 0 TD. 20 rec yards 0 TD = 8 pts
vs WAS-111 yards, 1 TD. 41 yards rec 0 TD = 21 pts
vs BUF-112 yards, 1 TD. 26 yards rec 0 TD = 19 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 16

I see big things from this guy, and I also see two nice matchups in the final weeks. If you can snag Jacobs as a third running back, he might prove alot more worthy than some receiver who may or may not produce near these numbers during weeks 15 and 16. Consider him a solid backup to whatever back has a bad matchup. He could be the guy who saves your team and you thank yourself later for drafting.


Cedric Benson
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs WAS-127 yards, 1 TD. 40 rec yards 0 TD = 22
vs MIN-71 yards 0 TD. 21 rec yards 0 TD = 9
vs GB-92 yards, 1 TD. 16 rec yards 0 TD = 16 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 15

The Bears believe in Benson and so do I. I love this kids motor, he hits holes like a bullet and refuses to go down. Minnesota might be a tough opponent but Washington and Green Bay should be a waltz for Benson, who will abuse them in garbage time. I can see a goal line TD in each contest. The Bears defense will be his best friend, getting turnovers and upping his carries in every game. A lead also doesn't hurt, as Benson will kill the clock as well and that's always nice to see as a fantasy owner.


Thomas Jones
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs CLE-89 yards 1 TD. 22 yards rec 0 TD = 16
vs NE-45 yards 1 TD. 8 rec yards 0 TD = 10
vs TEN- 81 yards 1 TD. 21 rec yards 0 TD = 16
Avg Pts per Week: 14

I'm still not a fan of this acquisition but here I am suggesting him. I just have a feeling he'll pick it up here with some great matchups. I don't think he'll get alot of yards with that line, but he's strong as an ox and I can see him pounding goal line touchdowns in every game, even against the Pats. I think the Jets air attack is underrated and will get down the field, and they won't hesitate to give Jones multiple chances to pound it for 6. He's got great vision, and can put his head down and drag a few guys. The Browns and Titans are easy ones even for this line.


-Risky Picks-

Laurence Maroney
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs PIT-75 yards 0 TD. 34 rec yards 0 TD = 10
vs NYJ-119 yards, 2 TD. 24 yards rec 0 TD = 25
vs MIA-71 yards, 0 TD. 16 rec yards 0 TD = 8
Avg Pts per Week: 14

I know I know, Maroney's the sexy pick right now as the newest superstar runner, and he will be very solid and will establish himself as a first round back for the next fantasy year, but these three weeks may not be the best way to close out a season. So be careful about making him the cornerstone of your offense. He ends up averaging as much as Jones, above, but faces a very tough Miami defense in most teams championship weeks. If you made it this far, you were lucky to get past week 14 with him facing the Steelers. Not a good three week period for the new Pats runner. He, to me, falls to the "Risky Picks" category due to his week 16 opponent, one of the hardest teams to run against.


Shaun Alexander
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs ARI-111 yards, 2 TD, 12 rec yards, 0 TD = 24 pts
vs CAR-98 yards 0 TD. 11 yards rec 0 TD = 10 pts
vs BAL-56 yards, 0 TD. 18 rec yards 0 TD = 6 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 13

I'm just not liking the Caroline matchup. I think they'll stack the box and attack him all day long. Alexander's success usually is followed with a team victory and I think they'll be one of many teams who realize this. I think they've got the talent and quickness to penetrate and stop runs early, forcing third and longs. If Seattle will score, I don't see SA being the one doing it this game. The Baltimore game is also just a nightmare if you've made it to your playoff finals and see this. Hey, Arizona should let him walk all over them...and that's good...right?


Frank Gore
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs MIN-64 yards, 0 TD. 23 rec yards 0 TD = 8 pts
vs CIN-115 yards 1 TD. 48 rec yards 0 TD = 21 pts
vs TB-76 yards, 0 TD. 28 yards rec, 0 TD = 9 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 12

I know, Gore's awesome. He's a top 5 pick, and I think fantasy aside he's one of the most purely talented runners in the game today. But this is just the nature of playoff matchups-he doesn't have a very good set of them. Minnesota is a wall and TB I think will be back in top form. Add to this that he's not always the far and away choice for goal line looks, though he gets his share. Another thing to keep in mind is the Niners offense. Smith has been given plenty of weapons in Jackson, Lelie and Vernon Davis, all capable of getting into the endzone. Gore might not be called upon to do it all when facing a harsh rushing defense. If you just can't overlook him, snatch up a good second runner for those tough weeks 14 and 16.


Willie Parker
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs NE-64 yards, 0 TD. 9 rec yards 0 TD = 6 pts
vs JAX-45 yards, 0 TD. 33 rec yards ,0 TD = 7 pts
vs STL-117 yards 2 TD. 24 rec yards 0 TD = 25 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 12

I've said it before, I'll say it again-Willie Parker struggles mightily vs stout run defenses. And he happens to face two of the toughest in weeks 14 and 15. Games like those two, could send you packin' early and isn't that really the one thing above all else you should avoid doing? When it's decision making time, why not let Willie and his inconsistency and troubles with tough defenses become someone elses problem? Or, if you're feeling lucky, you could take him in hopes you make it to the finals, where Parker faces the saddest run defense in all the league. The Rams. It's up to you how you want to play it. Trade bait? I'm just sayin...


-Rotten Apples-

Willis McGahee
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs IND-96 yards 1 TD. 8 rec yards, 0 TD = 15 pts
vs MIA-52 yards, 0 TD. 14 rec yards, 0 TD = 6
vs SEA-92 yards, 0 TD. 11 rec yards, 0 TD = 10
Avg Pts per Week: 10

I've always attributed the fall of Jamal Lewis to the line and the quarterback. Steve McNair doesn't have a gun that scares opposing secondaries, and the former pillar of the Ravens line, Jonathan Ogden, has sine fallen from grace and isn't what he used to be. Teams aren't letting Baltimore runners get 3 free yards before contact anymore. Willis McGahee is no savior. He's shown he can't produce with 8 men in the box daring the team to pass and while Baltimore should improve his numbers, I still don't trust him. Miami should be a nightmare. I don't like how Thomas and Taylor match up against the Ravens line. They'll penetrate the LOS all day long. The game that puts McGahee in the "Rotten Apples" category to me is week 16. Seattle is a team I think who will be geared to stopping the run. Last season they gave up yardage but could limit touchdowns to under one per game, and with Kerney and Peterson now in the fold, I think they'll be a good run stopping team, giving up less yardage than previous years. I don't think this bodes well for a championship game matchup for McGahee.


Ronnie Brown
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs BUF-110 yards, 0 TD, 63 rec yards 0 TD= 17 pts
vs BAL-44 yards, 0 TD. 9 rec yards, 0 TD = 4 pts
vs NE-70 yards, 0 TD. 18 rec yards 0 TD = 8 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 9

Brown's been another trendy pick lately, due to Trent Green showing up in a Phins uni, and Cam Cameron being hired to supposedly do with Brown what he did with Tomlinson. Only, I ain't buyin it. It'll take more than oen offseason to do anything close to that and I think alot of people are falling for the ol' offseason shenanigans. Every player is better, every tired player is rested, every coach will improve everything he should, yadda yadda blaaaah. Few things I see wrong-Miami's line is no where near as talened as the Chargers line. Their FB is good but no where near Lorenzo Neal, who is for my money, tops in the biz. Trent Green is aging and hasn't been the same since the concussion, and now has to play in the worst offense he's ever played in, and last but certainly not least-Brown is not Tomlinson. Add to this, that he faces Baltimore and New England in week 15 and 16, and you've got yourself a player you drafted high and will be benching during your playoffs. I wouldn't waste this pick when I can get someone like Henry or Westbrook.

Week 16 Matchups

First off, my apologies for being so late with this. I'll get right to it.

Favorable Matchups:

Joseph Addai vs HOU. I don't think the Texans will be as bad as they were. They're slowly but surely improving. However, don't be afraid to put all your hopes and dreams and championship aspirations on the shoulders of Addai. The Texans just can't compete with the Colts. Indy's got their number. I expect a huge lead early and alot of running. Addai is going to carve up this D and i expect Tomlinson type numbers. Hey, if you've got Demeco Ryans as a single D player, start him, he'll be tackling Addai alot after 4-7 yard gains. Come the third quarter, Addai will start running all over the place. This has blowout written all over it, and Peyton seems to be easing off of his constant desire to pass inside the 8 yard line on all three downs. And that's nothing but good for Indy running backs. Or in this case, back. Bye bye Rhodes, hello points!

Projected Stats: 153 yards, 3 TDs. 21 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Brian Westbrook vs NO. New Orleans will try, but New Orleans will fail when it comes to containing Westbrook. I've said for awhile now, if NO wants to have real success of any kind, they need to start upgrading that defense. You can run on them, you can pass on them, and in the midst of everything last season, that got overlooked pretty badly. That offense was almost explosive enough to cancel out the bad defense. Almost. They added more players but none of them are convincing me they've remedied the problem. Enter, Westbrook. This might turn into a shootout, but regardless, they still love to put the ball in this guys hands. Not much to explain, I can just see him running and catching all over, all day long. If anything, he had one of his worst games last season against the Saints, however I can't see it happening twice. This late in the year, with the Eagles battling for playoff spots most likely. Crunch time is Westbrook time.

Projected Stats: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD. 65 yards receiving, 1 TD.


Larry Johnson vs DET. Regardless of everything that's been said, whispered, rumored and written about LJ, the biggest thing you can look forward to (if he's still a Chief) would be this game. The Lions aren't as horrible at stopping the run as you might assume, but they're no where near good. And they give up TDs. I attribute this to them being so dog tired near the end of games from teams killing the clock. But alas, even if this is close, Herm Edwards is going to pound the ball. Maybe not early, but in the second half, LJ will work his ass off. The second KC gets a lead it's all LJ. This is a defense that allows TDs badly as it is, facing a team that has linemen who still know how to help the runner get scores.

Projected Stats: 120 yards, 2 TDs. 18 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Willie Parker vs STL. If you've made it this far, Willie will carry you the rest of the way. Like I've said before, this is a player who absolutely thrives on matchups. A team like STL is almost the perfect chance for Parker. STL is not built to stop fast runners. Fast Willy is going to have a field day here. This will be at STL as well, and the turf is going to make things even worse for the Rams. The only thing holding back his yardage totals will be the fact the Rams will stay in it and keep it close. Still, if you've made it this far and this is your championship week, Willy may win you a title.

Projected Stats: 117 yards, 2 TDs. 24 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


Rudi Johnson vs CLE. Mr. Consistency will live up the moniker that I just gave him, right now. But hey, it's accurate. More accurate than Vince Young. Ba dum tssss. I kid, I kid. Anyway, if you were ever looking for a guy who you didn't have to worry about, it's probably Rudi. And the Cleveland defense, suffice to say, doesn't have to worry either. They know they won't stop him. I expect the usual Cincy shallacking in this one. Get good gains tossing, let Rudi get the tough first downs, get a lead throwing, maybe get Rudi a rushing score in the first half, then run all game long after that. He'll tire them out. He's built for that, that's part of his success. He just runs right at you, hard, until you're too tired to stop him, and then he gets his classic big runs late in the game. Gotta love him. CLE didn't allow more than 15 rushing scores last year but that won't stop Mr. Consistency. In two games last year vs the Browns, he had over 200 yards and 3 scores.

Projected Stats: 122 yards, 2 TDs. 9 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Unfavorable Matchups:

Frank Gore vs TB. Be weary of that TB defense. They haven't gone away yet, and they can still keep the averages low and the TD count even lower. This was a team who suffered pretty much solely from being on the field way too much and having teams run out the clock against them. They've improved the defense, and I like the offensive adjustments as well. Garcia should work well with his new cast and Caddy should be back in form with some offensive line fix ups. I can see the TB defense, while a little aged, playing like they used to against the run. Gore will be a beast, however I believe they'll hold him in check this week. They can match his speed and have the DTs that will let the linebackers do their jobs. They're going to dare Smith to beat them in the air and while it's arguable if he will or not, that I think will be the plan.This won't be the production you need in what might be your championship game.

Projected Stats: 76 yards, 0 TDs. 28 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Travis Henry vs SD. Again like Gore, I think Henry will own defenses this season. Although I've gotta play the odds and say SD will stop him juuuust enough to make this matchup unfavorable. Henry has shown though, that he can wear down defenses and play all season long, but SD has a great run defense and I think they'll stack the box, hoping Cutler won't beat them in the air. It'll be on the road so it'll be tough. I can't see a hundred yard game but I do see a score. He's not as unfavorable as some star backs but still, this is your big game. You need points, bad.

Projected Stats: 79 yards rushing, 1 TD. 9 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Shaun Alexander vs BAL. Alexander makes a living behind his linemen, and wearing down opponents. Baltimore will be relentless, stacking eight men in the box almost every running down. Ray Lewis will terrorize Alexander, matching his speed and holding him while others can jump on the pile. Don't expect much yardage, but do expect a long day for Shaun. I just don't like the way his running style matches up with the Ravens DTs and linebackers, and add to that, they're already a beast of a run stopping defense.

Projected Stats: 56 yards, 0 TDs. 18 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Ronnie Brown vs NE. NE is just a bad deal. No other way to describe it, really. They hold the averages under 4 and can limit long runs over 20 yards to almost 1 ever 3 games. Add to that, the line in Miami overall isn't really that much improved, and with Trent Green who has quietly played horribly since his concussion and now playing on a slightly below average offense, I can't see Brown doing anything of significance during your most important match.

Projected Stats: 70 yards, 0 TDs. 18 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


Laurence Maroney vs MIA. Likewise for Maroney, he faces one of the toughest run defenses in the entire league, and by far the hardest to break long runs against. I think Ol' Billy B just lets Brady handle this one. Maroney will try, but get stuffed at the line constantly and I don't know if he can bounce to the far, far outside with any consistency. Miami can also keep runners out of the endzone very well. Don't expect a huge game even if NE gets a lead. Miami will stop them. He's a big bruiser, but so are they. Don't be confident in this matchup.

Projected Stats: 71 yards, 0 TDs. 16 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


Best RBBC

McAllister/Bush vs PHI. By default, really, as no one else had a matchup that was even remotely close to good. Even this one I don't think is one to play. Maybe just avoid anyone in a committee for this week.

That's about it. Again i'm sorry for taking so long, but I will put up a week 17 entry soon, because that's "rest your starter" week and can get a little complicated. Also I'll break down the players mentioned and grade how effective, risky, rewarding and disappointing they'll be during weeks 15-17, your most important fantasy football weeks and come up with the best and worst picks for those tough draft decisions.

R

Larry Johnson? Ehhhh, I don't think so...

All the buzz recently (and I really mean all the buzz-it's the least exciting part of the football year) has been about the Larry Johnson spectacle. Will he play in KC without a new deal? Will they trade him? Will he die at age 42 from carrying the ball a million times a year?

Well, you're here, so I'm assuming all you're concerned with is what this means to your (potential) fantasy team(s). Well, here's what I think...

The big rumor is that he'll be traded. Last one I saw that got more press than the average forum topic, was Dallas. I don't think Dallas is in the market. At all. This is a team who was amazingly successful running the ball last year. They have a back who can carry a load and was slated to become a superstar. He's not disappointing anyone. They also have a third down back who is as good as third down runners come. Both could be starters on many teams. Both are young.

Also take into account they have Tyson Thompson. While not a megastar, many people are really high on the talent of this kid.

There are many teams in the league who I think would and should make a bid at LJ. However, one of the few who shouldn't, is Dallas. It might sound like I just described a team happy to make a trade, but I think they're happy with the mix they have now. They've got balance all over the place, youth in all three of their runners, and the perfect mix of production from each (yards from Jones, scores from Barber). Dallas doesn't need him, and won't try to get him. I'm almost positive. Don't fear drafting Jones or Barber where you usually would.

If I've got a third overall pick in a draft, I wouldn't be scared to take LJ. However, this doesn't mean he'll automatically play for KC. While I think he will without a doubt play football this season, who knows where it'll be. I think it'd be smart for the Chiefs to trade him. Sounds crazy but he's a bruiser who might be playing on borrowed time, so why break the bank during a rebuilding year?

I mean, what do you do? Do you fork out a boatload for a guy who will play to 32 and start to break down like so many high-carry backs before him? And sacrifice rebuilding your team? A running back won't win you games, not like you'd hope, and the rest of your team will remain mediocre.

Or, do you trade him to get rid of that huge sum of money, for draft picks possibly, and work on your team? Because no matter how well LJ does, you're going to lose anyway. May as well lose while crafting a team for the future, right? Use that money on offensive line. Then, use it on defense. Let someone else pay Johnson through the nose for 4 or so years of hard work. The NFL today is proof with a good line, an average, truly 900 yard back can look like a superstar 1300 yard back.

So, fantasy wise, I wouldn't be scared to pick LJ. I have a feeling he'll play for KC sooner or later. They're the kind of team who is content to have a superstar offensive player in exchange for a few defensive players who could help them win. They'll continue to suffer on defense, and lose games ultimately, but LJ will get you some points. So, isn't that all that matters in the world of fantasy football?

Week 15 Fantasy Playoff Matchups

As promised, here's my breakdown of the projected best and worst matchups of week 15. Some names I list are names one would start on a weekly basis regardless of opponent. However, with many must-start runners out there, partly my intent is to help in the decision of which one to choose on draft day. I hereby am going to omit LaDainian Tomlinson, as he's a lock for being chosen #1 overall in almost every standard draft, and will be started every single game short of the SD bye week, thus rendering any analysis of him or his opponents irrelevant. Here we go...


FAVORABLE MATCHUPS:

-Frank Gore vs CIN. Cincy has a rush defense I'd best describe as painfully average. They don't give up too too many long runs, too many touchdowns, first downs, etc. But they give up enough to make the opposing running back productive. In other words, they're no Baltimore, but they're not as bad as say, the Titans. Note: I consider first downs an important stat. A runner runs for a first down, and not only is it an extra yard or two, it's a least three more chances at yards per drive. Anyway, I think regardless of whether or not the Bengals get a lead, Gore will be the workhorse well into the third quarter, and if they're down, I expect alot of short passes to Gore until SF absolutely has to pass long. They love working this guy and the Bengals D won't stop him.

Projected Stats: 115 yards, 1 TD. 48 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


-Laurence Maroney vs NYJ. The Jets D doesn't give up too many big runs, but they let teams grind away and get first downs. Enter Maroney, who will be counted on to grind up the Jets defense and seal the victory. The Pats will be content to pound the rock all second half if they have to and me thinks the Jets won't be able to consistently stop him. As good as Vilma and Co. can be, I think they'll just get tired having to face him over, and over, and oooover again. This'll be a long day for the NYJ defense.

Projected Stats: 119 yards, 2 TDs. 24 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


-Larry Johnson vs TEN. If you didn't read my commentary on the Titans defense in my week 14 breakdown, go back and read it. It all applies to LJ here. I expect a thorough abusing of a Tennessee rush defense who had to face LT the week before. This week, they're going to Arrowhead to face a guy who I think will tear them up all day long. The Titans only hope is to get a lead and force them to pass. Ain't gonna happen, I'm afraid. Hell, I'm reluctant to believe they'll stop giving it to LJ even if they do start to lose. I can't see the Titans stopping LJ here. It's the end of the year, they'll be worn out, especially after facing LT the week prior.

Projected Stats: 167 yards, 2 TDs. 29 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


-Brandon Jacobs vs WAS. Put bluntly, the 'Skins suck at stopping the run. However, they gave up only 9 rushing scores last season. They certainly tighten up at the goal line. But, and there's always a but, they have up over 10 runs of 20+ yards, and over 100 first downs. Jacobs will get yards against this team and while they're great at limiting rushing scores, Jacobs is a bulldozer. I think once the 'Skins cover Plaxico with a couple guys and suffocate him, they'll use Shokcey as a decoy and rush Jacobs up the gut.

Projected Stats: 111 yards, 1 TD. 41 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


-Travis Henry vs HOU. While I think the Houston defense is on it's way to significantly improving, I don't think they'll be able to stop Henry. Denver will get a lead early and won't look back. Shanahan knows Kubiak, and while the same could be said otherwise, the student won't outwit the teacher. Shanahan will utilize Cutler's arm and open up the running game, big time. They'll prepare for it, they'll be tough to predict it, but while they're watching for the play-action boot, Henry will actually be running up the gut. All day.

Projected Stats: 127 yards, 2 TDs. 27 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


-Steven Jackson vs GB. While the Pack aren't awful at stopping the run, it's Jackson. It's not a matter of if he'll get points, it's just how many. And I think they're going to give Jackson a thorough workout against a Packers D who might stop the pass better than the run. I don't think they'll stop the Rams entirely but I just think Jackson will see a little more action than the average. I expect alot of short passes on play-action, alot of screen passes. And goal line looks.

Projected Stats: 95 yards, 2 TDs. 64 receiving yards, 1 TD.


-Joseph Addai vs OAK. The Raiders aren't terribly bad at stopping the run. Ok ok, they might be. But they generally limit opponents to almost below 4 yards per carry. Their downfall? Teams just pound the ball all day long, and to make matters worse, they don't stop on third and short very well. Addai could see alot of work, but alot of production as well. The Colts should blow the floodgates open early and Addai will be the lucky bastard who reaps the biggest fantasy rewards.

Projected Stats: 130 yards, 2 TDs. 35 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


-Marshawn Lynch vs CLE. This team still gives up big runs .They still don't stop goal line touchdowns much. And they still aren't that good. Buffalo might get an early lead and it might turn into "The Marshawn Lynch Show". Lots of dump passes followed by big runs. I can see Thomas coming in to give him a rest on third downs, and Lynch coming right back out again. Losman's arm will take the extra man out of the box and open up lanes. Especially against the Browns.

Projected Stats: 110 yards, 1 TD. 53 yards receiving. 1 TD.


UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS:

-M. Jones-Drew/Fred Taylor vs PIT. I keep getting flashbacks of MJD going backwards more than he went forward. Taylor was bigger and fared better but still wasn't worth a TD. Pittsburgh, while losing steam since winning the Superbowl, can still shut down teams in the running game. Jones-Drew's style to me doesn't play well against the Steelers, and Taylor isn't a guy I'd start, either. I'm grouping them both together sine they're a committee, but one of the most popular committees around. I expect a low scoring, field goal fest with maybe a few big passes late in the game. A real chess match, with the runners not factoring in.

Projected Stats:
MJD-25 yards, 0 TDs. 30 receiving yards, 0 TDs.
Taylor-67 yards, 0 TDs. 12 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


-Willie Parker vs JAC. Like I said, I don't see the running backs factoring into this game. Jacksonville can stuff the run as good as anyone, and I've stressed before-Parker struggles against tough run defenses. Not really much more to say.

Projected Stats: 45 yards, 0 TDs. 33 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


-Ronnie Brown vs BAL. Kind of a no brainer. All I really have to type is "Ronnie Brown vs Baltimore". The Ravens will terrorize the Fins offense all day long. I think they'll ditch the run early and pass often. Brown may seem like a steal when no one else will take him, and he may have a few great games (which I wish he would've had for me last year) but in week 15 when you really need those fantasy points, when you need a great performance, I can't see Brown doing anything at all. I'm predicting one of the most disappointing weeks of fantasy football this season.

Projected Stats: 44 yards, 0 TDs. 9 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


-Cedric Benson vs MIN. I've said before I love Benson's motor. He runs hard, really hard and I like it. But I think Minnesota will be stacking the box and his style of running, one cut and straight up, won't be working very well against one of the most stout run defenses in the league. Not all is lost-Benson did rack up the yardage last season in a game late in the season against the Vikes. However, that was in garbage time. He's the starter now, and you can't run over the Minnesota defense more often than not. I can see Chicago not letting up on the run game but i can also see Minny frustrating Benson over and over.

Projected Stats: 71 yards, 0 TDs. 21 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


-Thomas Jones vs NE. Ahhh Thomas Jones. A hard worker but I just can't see this guy as anything other than a victim of a poor Jets offensive line, and this week will be no different. However, NE isn't as good at stopping goal line stands as they are anywhere else on the field. I see a TD, but not much yardage. A solid performance any week of the regular season, but this is the fantasy playoffs, you more than likely are looking for that rock solid production that will send your opponent into the offseason wondering what went wrong, not you. I see NE stuffing the run until they get a lead, and New York abandoning the run and going to some other backs for third downs and passing downs.

Projected Stats: 45 yards, 1 TD. 8 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


-Willis McGahee vs MIA. Ironically enough, I'm thinking McGahee will be MIA in this game. Personally I've never been impressed with McGahee in the NFL. Not due to stats, but just watching him. He doesn't impress me all that much. I think the Dolphins front seven is going to dominate the Ravens line. Ogden is a shell of what he used to be and I doubt they'll be able to get guards or the center to the linebackers and they're (Thomas and Co.) going to meet McGahee at the LOS all day long.

Projected Stats: 52 yards, 0 TDs. 14 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


Take A Chance On:

Lendale White/Chris Brown. Whether one of them, or both, they might be a good committee to take a flier on. Why? They play KC in week 15. That might be fantasy gold that no one else in your league's thought of yet. If one guy ends up getting even 70 percent of the touches, he might be serious playoff weapon against a KC defense that just can't ever really stop the rush. This team is still one of the worst tackling teams I've ever seen. I wouldn't be surprised to see a good chunk of yards, around 80 from whoever is starting, I don't think it matters really, and a TD.

Brandon Jackson. I, like many, can see Jackson turning into the starter in Green Bay, and if the Corey Dillon rumors go south and he does get the job, he'll be a great guy to turn to in week 15 if you absolutely had to draft McGahee or someone who might not have such a great matchup on paper when it matters. This is because he's playing the Rams in week 15. Yeaaaah. The Rams, who'd let Jared the Subway guy rack up over 100 yards and a score or two.


Best RBBC Combo:

Portis/Betts. They're playing the Giants, who love to give up rushing scores. Someone here is going to pile up yardage. If you can handcuff one and maybe start the other at a flex position, it might not be too bad a move. Odds are if you have Portis, you've handcuffed Betts, or you should've, and if you can measure who has been getting the carries by week 15 and make an estimated guess, you might be very happy come monday.


I apologize, as I intended to have this up earlier but came down with some kind of illness that decided to tighten up the left side of my neck and shoulder, and give me amazingly painful migraines. Weak. Whatever, here it is. Week 16 breakdown should be coming sooner than the week 15 entry did. Hope this has been, or will be helpful.

Look Out For...

Darrell Jackson.

The 'Niners offense this season is going be staring square into sixteen eyes. Those eyes will belong to the eight men who will crowd the line of scrimmage on a weekly basis. The Frank Gore secret is out, and teams are going to routinely leave Jackson in a position to be Alex Smith's new weapon of choice. It happened in Seattle and I think if, and this might be a big if, Alex Smith has a breakout year of sorts, Jackson will reap the benefits in spades.

He's not a Chad Johnson or a Marvin Harrison, but lest we forget every year he's been healthy, he's eclipsed 1000 yards, and would've done it in '02 and '06 whenhe played 13 games. I think teams will be so focused on stopping Gore they might let this guy get in a few solid catches per game. With San Fran playing from behind, like I suspect they will, he might get some nice garbage yardage.

I'm guessing we'll be looking at something like 1034 yards and 9 TD grabs. I could be totally wrong because this all depends on Alex Smith stepping up and really playing like alot of people think he should.

Best/Worst Week 14 Running Backs

Perhaps I'm going out on a limb here, because knowing how well a defense can stop the run before the season even starts is always hard, but I'll attempt to rank the best running backs for what is usually the first week of fantasy playoffs.Hopefully this will give you a more clear idea of who to choose when draft day rolls around.

Favorable Matchups:

Ladainian Tomlinson vs Tennessee. If there was ever a week for Tomlinson to rack up the points, it would be this one. Tennessee I really don't think did anything to improve that run defense, and tied for a second worst high in rushing touchdowns allowed with 20. Whoever plays this team is in line for at least one rushing touchdown. No brainer here, though anyone who is in position to pick Tomlinson, is going to do so anyway regardless of this matchup.

Projected Stats: 132 yards, 2 TDs. 66 yards receiving, 1 TD.


Rudi Johnson vs STL. Guess who couldn't stop the run last year? Guess who gave up 21 rushing scores on the ground? Guess who didn't do nearly enough to fix that? Answer: Begins with "R", ends with "ams". Yup, the Rams rushing defense didn't exist last year. They put the corners in at DT, the linebackers at safety, and the coach at DE. Or that's what you'd think. Rudi is incredibly consistent and I am comfortable guaranteeing at least one rushing score.

Projected Stats: 156 yards, 2 TDs. 17 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Steven Jackson vs Cincinnati. This one is a bit of a gut feeling. I think Jackson will be relied on to carve up the Cincy D. They traditionally give up big runs on D and I think STL is going to get a lead going into the half, and later on the late 3rd and early 4th quarters it should be a close game, and they'll just let Jackson pound away. He'll tire out the Cin D and put the game away. They won't be able to stop him. This will be a late-season battle of the running backs.

Projected Stats: 123 yards, 1 TD. 65 yards receiving, 1 TD.


Shaun Alexander vs Arizona. Don't expect any home runs out of Alexander for this matchup, as Arizona is more prone to letting teams consistently pound away for yards aside from letting runners break 20-30 yard gains. Attribute this to Adrian Wilson mostly, but AZ still won't be able to stop a Seattle team who I think will let Alexander come back to the form he's shown most of these years. I think they'll get a healthy lead and let Alexander take alot of handoffs off-tackle for 5-6 yard gains.

Projected Stats: 111 yards, 2 TDs. 12 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Brian Westbrook vs NYG. Like I've written before, Westbrook is as consistent as any starting back out there. The guy will put up at least 10 points for you almost weekly. The Giants, while a team who can keep a runner to almost under 4 yards a carry, and limit long runs, they to me look to tire out easily near the end of the game. Also, they give up rushing touchdowns, big time. They were one of the absolute worst teams last season for stopping rushing touchdowns, but only gave up 8 runs of 20 yards or more all season. This speaks to a defense that slowly gets worn out, and tired, and lets a rusher take one for 6. I don't think they'll be able to stop Westbrook, who I've always noticed doesn't get tired towards the end of games.

Projected Stats: 88 yards rushing, 2 TDs. 65 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Unfavorable Matchups:

Larry Johnson vs Denver. This late in the season, after Herm Edwards has just ran you probably about 320-330 times already, you're facing a team that has stacked itself with huge bodies in the middle, and is running a Bates oriented defense? Without your blocking FB? And the two linemen who opened up massive holes for you in the past? Don't expect much. Look for Denver to stack the box and let the secondary take care of any passes Huard or Croyle try to make. After losing one of his best linemen in 2006 Johnson's yards per carry dropped a full yard. This year doesn't look so great and this week might be the week he shows how tired Edwards has made him.

Projected Stats: 89 yards, 0 TDs. 9 receiving yards, 0 TDs.


Frank Gore vs Minnesota. While i maintain Gore is one of the most purely talented runners in the business, Minnesota has prided itself in completely shutting down some of the games best backs. It all begins on the line with a pair of mountains at DT. They allow the linebackers to fly around and make plays and foil any rushing attempts. While they're not as good a red zone rushing D as some teams, like maybe Baltimore, they can keep the yardage very low and if they get a lead, they can really take the opposing runner out of the game. Minnesota might well get a lead here.

Projected Stats: 64 yards, 0 TDs. 23 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Joseph Addai vs Baltimore. This might be a nightmare for Addai owners. Baltimore shows no signs of slowing down and were arguably the best rushing defense last season. While he's lost his ability to shed blockers, Ray Lewis has gotten some great DTs in front of him that allow him to get to the ball carrier like he used to, and the whole defense just work so cohesively that a 3 yard per carry average isn't uncommon. As good as Addai is, I think they'll force Peyton to resort to trying to beat them with his arm, and running draws, which won't work on a Baltimore defense that's too fast and too huge up the middle.

Projected Stats: 68 yards, 0 TDs. 19 yards receiving, 0 TDs.

Willie Parker vs New England. I don't think "Fast Willy" will be able to run around this defense. I think ol' Billy B shows up and dares Roethlisberger to beat them with his arm. I can see eight guys in the box regularly and NE getting a lead, allowing the Pats D to chase down Parker even more, who has traditionally sputtered against tough run defenses. The last real tough run D he performed well against to memory, would be the first week of last season against Miami. Other than that, the past two years, i don't really recall any. This guy gets his yards in massive chunks every other week against weak defenses.

Projected Stats: 64 yards, 0 TDs. 9 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


Marshawn Lynch vs Miami. While I think Lynch will be a really productive back this year, I think he'll run into a wall in Miami. I think they'll stone him early and often, forcing Losman to beat them with his arm. Miami might well be the toughest D to break a big one against, and they rarely give up rushing touchdowns. This game has Losman-to-Evans written all over it. Look for Lynch to do alot of pass blocking and not much point producing.

Projected Stats: 54 yards, 0 TDs. 13 yards receiving, 0 TDs.


I'll put together another list for Week 15, when even more fantasy playoffs will be beginning. Hope this has been helpful.

A Man Walks Into A Draft Room...

..stop me if you've heard this one. Names have been changed to protect the innocent and/or extremely stupid.

The first thing I see, is Team A, laughing, screaming in caps lock font about how horrible T.O. is.

It's going to be one of those drafts.

I realize my good fortune and see I have the second overall pick. It's a 10 team league, so this isn't so bad. I figure maybe if someone makes a blunder I'll waaaait it out and get another good back to go with what I figure to be Steven Jackson.

Five minutes to draft time, and Team C is telling everyone to leave Tomlinson until third so he can draft him because it's his favorite player. I proceeded to lift a car and break it over my face.

The draft is starting and low and behold, the first player off the board is......Tomlinson. Mean words, angry intent and bad vibes permeate throughout the war room. The anger from Team C is short lived, as I without hesitation select Steven Jackson with the #2 pick, and it becomes his turn.

He selects Shaun Alexander. Then, as quickly as I've seen a 4th overall selection all year, the next owner promptly and without a second thought snatches up Larry Johnson, probably wondering what good deed was done in a past life to deserve such a gift.


The rest of the first round goes as normal, with what had become inevitable smack talk from the usual suspects, until the 7th selection, where Team X, selects Terrell Owens. You can imagine the words exchanged after that pick. I think to myself oh well, one more running back down the line. This should be easy.

Round 2 begins, and with the 4th overall selection in round 2, Team X selects......Randy Moss.

Sigh...i begin wondering just how badly i can take this poor fool in a trade. The rest of round 2 proceeds, with Peyton Manning, Steve Smith & Marvin Harrison being taken. Travis Henry falls within 2 spots of me and i start hoping against hope that i can get a player who should have been taken many picks ago.

Travis Henry is selected mere seconds before I had my chance to grab him and not look back. I've done many a draft, for many a year, and no matter how often it happens, when the owner one spot before you takes your pick, it is the most deflating, disheartening, disappointing part of fantasy football, other than losing. You swear to seek revenge but as usual it's all forgotten by mid season, if not before.

So here I am, wondering....pondering...do I take Reggie Bush, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee? I was positive i could steal Brandon Jacobs later, so i selected......Cedric Benson. A pure gut move. One owner would later ask me, who is he? I scan through the many smartass remarks possible, but answer only with "Last I saw, he played football". He'll know.

Round 3 approaches and i select Tory Holt. No questions here, really. It's a standard league and I need a WR, and he's as consistent as they get. Team X selects Tom Brady. Team C selects Carson Palmer.

The QB rush is on. Funny thing about drafts, is you can prepare to your heart's content but if you get a small handful of reachers, you almost must become one too. Alot of draft strategies are prepared with the mindset that you won't be drafting amongst the fantasy equivalent of a short bus.

Round 4 weaves downward and with my second to last pick, i opt for Lee Evans over Javon Walker. Both fine selections but I was in a bettin' mood. It should be noted before my pick, Team C sleected the Chicago defense, and Team X picked Jeremy Shockey. Sigh...

Round 5, usually time to take the guys some "casuals" don't know about.....however, I've a feeling that was the case all along. Hines Ward goes to Team C one selection after I decide to go for Brandon Jacobs. Baltimore is later selected by Team X.

Round 6 comes and goes with surprisingly no real stupid picks. Perhaps a few teams waited too long to have Deuce McAllister starting for them and Edgerrin James, so I, already packing three starting workhorses, opt for Marshawn Lynch.

Round 7, and the receiver pool was dry thanks to some overzealous owners and I decide to take a risky pick on Braylon Edwards. Meh. Next round i snatch Carnell Williams. Solid for a later rounder i suppose.

Round 9 I realize quarterback is the flavor of this draft room, and I need one quick before I'm forced to use Ben Roethlisberger or Daunte Culpepper. To my surprise, Mike Vick is available. Dog fighting scum or not, he will get points. Love those rushing numbers. I take him and hope to maybe score a backup someone's forgotten about. I also hope the bastard doesn't get suspended.

Round 10, 11 and 12, full of the usual picks you'd expect by now, and I select Terry Glenn, Jay Cutler and Jason Hanson at kicker.

The last 3 picks i use to take a huge chance on Jerry Porter, because if he doesn't pan out, I'll have someone I feel ok dropping, Minnesota (who I won't start weekly, I'll play DEF matchups and Porter will help me do that with the spot he leaves open) and Tony Scheffler, a TE in Denver who has the tools to be a great TE and Cutler loves him. Besides, it's TE, I can just scan the wire and make a quicker educated guess on the first few surprise guys.

There you have it. Maybe in my "just for kicks" type of leageus I'll stick to customs. Public leagues have the flaw of being all too public.

And isn't it funny, that Team X and Team C will probably both be sporting facial expressions vaguely similar to their team names?


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Sleepers, Reachers & Jerks

As far as fantasy drafts go, I originally began this summer with my football puzzle pieces scattered about. Slowly, through a few drafts, I started to get a grasp on who was going where, and when. The puzzle was put back together, as it was when I left it last season, almost as if I'd never forgotten, and two things quickly stuck out to me. 1) Some players are going to really surprise people, and some are being drafted way too high and 2) There's still always the draft room reacher. I'll begin by discussing the former.

First things first, who I think will be this years "fantasy sleeper picks"...

Brandon Jacobs

I've seen this guy go as low as the 10th round. Huh? Here are just a few names I've seen claimed before Jacobs is off the board. Santana Moss, Hines Ward, Thomas Jones, Reggie Brown and Muhsin Muhammad. Granted this won't happen in every draft but it's happened in a few I've been in. Please tell me you're joking. This guy is a goal line monster, and will be getting the carries this year. A full time starter. And with a chance to build depth at the ever-vital running back spot, you'd rather have Hines Ward? Yes, Hines Ward who will be lucky to hit 60 yards a week and a touchdown every two or three games. Or Muhsin Muhammad? Yeah, pass on a guy will touch the ball 20+ times a game on the ground and is guaranteed rushing scores, for a guy who will be lucky to see four passes a week and probably won't sniff anywhere near the number of touchdowns Jacobs will have by the halfway point of the season.

Projected Stats: 1396 yards rushing & 16 TDs. 413 yards reeiving & 1 TD.

Cedric Benson

I see big things from this kid. I love the way he runs and I think if he can stay the course through the season without hurting himself, I see a great year out of him. I've seen Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones and even Deuce McAllister go above Benson. I think there's going to be alot of people kicking themselves for not going after this guy. He hits the hole hard and has a motor, and doesn't give up on plays. He cuts back extremely well and far too often I see backs hit a hole, not even bother looking for an outside lane and just fall over on first contact. As a fan or a fantasy owner you just want to slap that type of player upside the mouth and tell him to get his shit together. This is Chicago, too, where they will be running. Alot. Especially when playing with a lead, which they do. Alot.

Projected Stats: 1268 yards rushing & 11 TDs. 212 yards receiving & 2 TDs.

Lee Evans

I think this kid has loads of talent just waiting to come out even more than last season. I think the key will be JP Losman playing better than last year. That said, I think Losman will play better, and I think Evans will benefit greatly. Lest we forget this guy was 78 yards away from leading the league in receiving yards. Also, that was with Losman drunk for half the season and tossing Evans maybe three to six passes a game. I think with Lynch opening things up and threatening defenses, Evans will put up some awesome numbers.

Projected Stats: 1328 yards & 9 TDs.

Devery Henderson

This honestly is more of a gut feeling. I really liked what i saw from this guy when he stepped into a major roll in the Saints offense. The X factor here is Meachem, though I don't think he'll step up to play #2, not this season. There's been a few lately like Colston, Clayton, etc. but overall, WR isn't an easy position to just step in and play. Especially when I think Henderson is a pretty underrated talent. And hey, it's the Saints offense. I think it's a safer pick than other #2 options is less pass-happy systems, like Bernard Berrian or Marty Booker or even Kevin Curtis, all of which I've seen taken higher than Henderson. I think NO knew what they were doing when they made no bones about Joe Horn's departure. Maybe handcuff Meachem but I think Henderson will start.

Projected Stats: 1102 yards receiving & 8 TDs.


Here are a few names I think are being drafted too high, or will disappoint owners as high picks.

Clinton Portis

Don't get me wrong, I think Portis is super talented, but I question the lingering effects of his recent injury history, and also if Betts will poach some of his workload. They love Betts in Washington and despite my thinking that Portis is more talented, I think it's Betts who fits the type of runner Washington uses in that scheme. I think Portis will get more work, but not enough to warrant the late first round or early second round selections he's been getting. People are picking this guy over the likes of Travis Henry and Laurence Maroney. Tsk tsk, guys.

Projected Stats: 1084 yards rushing & 9 TDs. 189 yards receiving & 0 TDs.

Vince Young

Another player I think is very skilled, but because of the system I'd be weary of taking him. I think they were dealt a major blow when Travis Henry was released. The Titans basically decided to take away most of Young's help, and add no one worth mentioning to make his life easier. Way to be, Tennessee. I think Henry was a vital cog in the machine, because he was a fantastic pass blocker, picked up key first downs, could take a hit and move forward and was a good goal line back. Best of all, he never tapered off. He maintained his high level of play late into games. As the other team tired out, Henry kept going and really put alot of games away. Young is going to miss this guy and I think it'll start to show when rushers stop being scared of the runner and go more after the QB, adn without the pass blocking, he's going to start looking more and more like a QB who is in the Titans offense. Besides, the jury's still out on his arm, which I still don't trust with that team.

Projected Stats: 17 TDs, 14 INTs, 2442 yards passing. 558 yards rushing & 6 TDs.

Thomas Jones

I don't trust that Jets offensive line. Not one bit. Not with a couple guys who have shown capable of stealing more than a few handoffs from Jones. He'll still get the majority but I think he'd need all he could get to put up a decent season here. I thought he was slightly overrated in Chicago. He had good vision and ran hard but I think he'll fall off a little in that Jets system, that's really not built to block for a back like him (or any back, for that matter). I see this all the time in football-a player is shoehorned from one team into another in the hopes they'll perform on the new team like they did on the old one. Then folks wonder why it doesn't happen. Duh. Another gut feeling but I don't expect much. He's been going above guys like Jacobs and Lynch.

Projected Stats: 1151 yards rushing & 5 TDs. 199 yards receiving & 1 TD.

Willis McGahee

This is one change of scenary I don't think will benefit the player. I'm not so sure the trouble with Baltimore was all on Jalam Lewis' shoulders. I think it was partly the line failing ot do it's job. Ogden's become a shell of what he once was and I don't see McGahee as being all that different from Lewis. Teams still aren't afraid of the aerial attack in Baltimore, and they'll be crowding the box, leaving McGahee owners to wonder why, for yet another season.

Projected Stats: 1189 yards rushing & 8 TDs. 108 receiving yards & 0 TDs.

There you have it. I'm actually starting a draft in a few minutes. Just one for fun, since I'm off work today. We'll see how well i practice what i preach. Maybe I'll post some results afterward.

Before I go, I'd like to give a great, big thank you to "annoying draft room guy". Because every time I witness one of these schmucks egging people to "WOMG HURRY UP" or laughing at someone for a draft pick, they almost always follow up by drafting Todd Heap in the 4th round or Donovan McNabb in the second round. Word to the wise-I may take a few extra seconds, but I'm doing it to make sure I have a decnet team every sunday. I don't feel like being out of playoff contention because I struggle to find another starting running back after wasting my second and third round picks on quarterbacks and tight ends.

Oh, and good luck with the Patriots defense, assface, I hope it's worth talking smack and having to start a slot receiver because you pissed away your picks. Smooth move, slick. Get bent.

High/Low

It's getting late so I'll be posting tomorrow afternoon who I think is being drafted too high, and who is being drafted too low. You may be shocked, you may be offended, you may start endorsing Tinactin and feel tingly over Brett Favre.

Stay tuned.

First Entry: Top Ten Analyzed

I suppose it would kind of me to welcome you to the very first entry in what I'm hoping will become at least a halfway readable blog on fantasy football and sometimes my thoughts on football in general. Or anything. But, mostly fantasy football. So welcome, and by all means thank you for surfing on in. If you play fantasy football, well, that might be why you're here. If you don't, and you enjoy NFL football, go ahead and give it a whirl. Get hooked. Share the thrill of victory, and the bitter tears of defeat. I'm just, you know, really familiar with the tears part. Ahem...

I think a good inaugural entry would be to vent about the average top ten picks in drafts this year. Some names stick out to me as obvious, some not so obvious.

I'll use Yahoo's default ranking list. Not my personal top ten, I'll probably do a write up on that sometime soon.

1. Ladainian Tomlinson. A beast. I've really no squabble with this selection. Tomlinson will net you at the very least 10 points a week. Really nothing more to say. There hasn't been this obvious a first selection in a few years. His week 15, 16 and 17 opponents are Detroit, Denver and Oakland, respectively. Denver has traditionally, short of last season, stopped LT where most teams can't. But Det and Oak are just high scoring games waiting to happen, especially if they're competing for the division with Den. This guy will deliver you points, and the burst ass hairs of anyone who tries to tackle him. LT loves you that much. Or at least you'll think he will. Take him if you have the #1 pick, or weep tears of bitter despair and regret for the next 17 weeks.

Projected Stats: 1710 yards rushing & 21 TDs. 560 yards receiving & 7 TDs.

2. Steven Jackson. An agreeable #2 i would say. The coach loves to put the ball in this guys hands, whether through the air or through a hand off, he doesn't share touches, and he has the raw strength and ability to do exactly what he did last year again. Week 15 he plays the Pack, and the following week he plays the Steelers, and after that Arizona. Pitt might be tough but really, if they want to feed him the ball, they will. I truthfully don't see a return to glory for the Steelers, not yet at least, and i think Stl will play with the lead going into it late. Nothin' like those bright, beautiful and satisfying garbage time points from your starting running back. If I had the #2 pick in a default league, this would be my guy.

Projected Stats: 1546 yards rushing & 15 TDs. 593 yards receiving & 2 TDs.

3. Larry Johnson. I'd be a tiny bit worried here as he recently lost one of his linemen (who i maintain were a superb help in yardage totals) and his fullback (who was very, very good). Also, Trent Green was the only QB on the roster who defenses were concerned about. Despite Huard's performance last season, while very good, I don't think opposing teams will fear him that much. This could spell a lighter season production wise from a player who almost had 1800 yards last year and 17 scores. I also think they're running him way too hard. This is by no means a bad third pick, I'd pick him, but don't expect another season like last year. Especially with Jim Bates anchoring a defense in this division in Denver, with new, big beefy DTs. Pick him with your third but don't be disappointed when his production goes down, which I think it will. He'll still be your juggernaut player, and a very good one. He plays Ten, Det and NYJ in the last three weeks, so if you're big on planning for the playoffs, you might even consider him your second overall pick.

Projected Stats: 1595 yards rushing & 17 TDs. 342 yards receiving & 1 TD.

4. Shaun Alexander. Ah, now this is where it gets interesting. The ups? Well, Seattle likes to pound the rock. Shaun doesn't share touches, and he can still put up numbers as he showed against the SD defense last season in week 16. The downs? He might still be hurt. Which makes this pick difficult if you're drafting early before the season begins. The more i think about it, the more i think they'll return to form this season. I don't think Alexander will perform like he did in 2005 but i think he'll do just fine. Seattle should play some games ahead and I think they'll commit to getting him touches. Another downside, perhaps, would be that in weeks 15, 16 and 17, he plays on the road two of the three, and plays the Ravens, Panthers and Falcons. Not a pleasant thought for owners of Alexander looking for playoff production. Though as I said, week 16 last year may discredit that logic altogether. He's a risk, but is a goal-line beast and Seattle loves to give it to him for scores. However I wouldn't take him with my 4th pick. I'd save that for the next player.

Projected Stats: 1351 yards rushing & 15 TDs. 89 yards receiving & 1 TD.

5. Frank Gore. Ah Frankie, the savior of my team last year. I think the Niners have an underrated blocking line, and I also think this year Alex Smith steps up a little more than last year, especially with his new set of WRs. I see good things from Gore, who is more of a pure talent runner than some more system oriented backs. His opponents are Cincy, Tampa and Cleveland. Tampa being at home. Not too bad, and whether up or down on the scoreboard, they love to get this guy the ball. I think teams will, as the season progresses, start defending the pass more after they stack the box early and get burned. I'd take Gore at 4 if I had the choice. This guy saved my team last year.

Projected Stats: 1696 yards rushing & 9 TDs. 492 yards receiving & 2 TDs.

6. Willie Parker. A pleasant surprise to alot of fantasy owners last season, namely in the touchdown category. He went from 4 TDs the year prior, to 13 rushing alone the next season, and added 3 in the air. The Steelers love the pound the ball and Fast Willie is going to soak up alot of yardage. His last 3 weeks are against the Jags, Rams and Ravens. Jax doesn't look any worse at stopping the run than last year and the Ravens shut him down last year. He's very up and down. Against tough run defenses, he was shut down. His good and bad weeks seemed to alternate, gaining 150+ yards and then gaining only 20-50 the the next week. The only consistent thing about his play was that this happened all year. This I'm sure ticked alot of fantasy owners off last year and it may you, too. Be weary of Jeckyll and his propensity to play like Hyde. And be ready to be very, very pissed off. Off and on. If you had him last year, I'm deeply sorry for your walls or the white patches covering up the results of Parker's bi-weekly performances..

Projected Stats: 1457 yards rushing & 11 TDs. 312 yards receiving & 4 TDs.

7. Joseph Addai. This kid I think is the real deal. Peyton will make sure of that or probably eat him in the locker room, and start at running back the following week. Seriously. Rhodes didn't sign elsewhere, Peyton just ate him. Addai will probably get around 350 carries this year I think and with the Colts offense, i find it hard to believe he'll stay under 4.4 yards a carry. A good pickup I think. A tad risky but I think he'll pay off.

Projected Stats: 1557 yards rushing & 11 TDs. 443 yards receiving & 5 TDs.

8. Rudi Johnson. Possibly the most consistent back you could get after the first few are gone. With Rudi, you get a guy who either has 100 yards, or a TD. Or Both. Only 4 games last season did he fail to run for 100 yards or post a score. Also, he plays the Niners, the Browns and the Phins in the last three weeks. Miami might be tough but hell, his consistency is enough to keep me comfortable. And the Niners and Browns look like 16+ point weeks just waiting to happen. The only downside is while you're sure to get his usual numbers, due to stat poaching by other talented backs who steal catches, you're almost sure to not get higher than usual, either. For the plain ol' Ned Flanders in you, take Rudi. Get the consistency without the risk.

Projected Stats: 1449 yards rushing & 13 TDs. 154 yards receiving & 2 TDs.

9. Brian Westbrook. Possibly the most consistent, safest pick here, aside from his brittle body of course. If he stays healthy, you're getting a guy who will almost be guaranteed to rack up about 1600 yards overall, if not more. I'd take him over Willie Parker just for that. Out of 16 weeks, only during 2 of those weeks was he worse less than 10 points in standard formats. And one of those was the last game of the year where he ran the ball once. So in essence, he only had one week worth less than 10 points where he was worth 7. Gotta love that. For my money, this guy gets taken by me if i want to build a dependable running back corp. Unless he gets hurt, in which case, commence pounding of head into wall. Repeat until next seasons draft.

Projected Stats: 1136 yards rushing & 6 TDs. 745 yards receiving & 5 TDs.

10. Laurence Maroney. A simple formula here. The Pats, who like to run alot, minus Corey Dillon, plus Moss & Stallworth, minus a stacked box when on offense equals a huge year for a guy who is big, fast and cuts back extremely well. I see the Pats using other teams fear of their wide outs to get Maroney goal line touches and i expect to see a year that rivals or surpasses Dillon's full year a few years back. He's just not allowed to help them win a Superbowl, I'll be too pissed off to like him anymore.

Projected Stats: 1534 yards rushing & 14 TDs. 318 yards receiving & 2 TDs.

There you have it. Lengthy, but just what i foresee from the average top ten in most preseason fantasy rankings. If you read it all, you get the gold star of patience and i can't thank you enough for wading through it. Thank you, come again.