As far as fantasy drafts go, I originally began this summer with my football puzzle pieces scattered about. Slowly, through a few drafts, I started to get a grasp on who was going where, and when. The puzzle was put back together, as it was when I left it last season, almost as if I'd never forgotten, and two things quickly stuck out to me. 1) Some players are going to really surprise people, and some are being drafted way too high and 2) There's still always the draft room reacher. I'll begin by discussing the former.
First things first, who I think will be this years "fantasy sleeper picks"...
Brandon Jacobs
I've seen this guy go as low as the 10th round. Huh? Here are just a few names I've seen claimed before Jacobs is off the board. Santana Moss, Hines Ward, Thomas Jones, Reggie Brown and Muhsin Muhammad. Granted this won't happen in every draft but it's happened in a few I've been in. Please tell me you're joking. This guy is a goal line monster, and will be getting the carries this year. A full time starter. And with a chance to build depth at the ever-vital running back spot, you'd rather have Hines Ward? Yes, Hines Ward who will be lucky to hit 60 yards a week and a touchdown every two or three games. Or Muhsin Muhammad? Yeah, pass on a guy will touch the ball 20+ times a game on the ground and is guaranteed rushing scores, for a guy who will be lucky to see four passes a week and probably won't sniff anywhere near the number of touchdowns Jacobs will have by the halfway point of the season.
Projected Stats: 1396 yards rushing & 16 TDs. 413 yards reeiving & 1 TD.
Cedric Benson
I see big things from this kid. I love the way he runs and I think if he can stay the course through the season without hurting himself, I see a great year out of him. I've seen Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones and even Deuce McAllister go above Benson. I think there's going to be alot of people kicking themselves for not going after this guy. He hits the hole hard and has a motor, and doesn't give up on plays. He cuts back extremely well and far too often I see backs hit a hole, not even bother looking for an outside lane and just fall over on first contact. As a fan or a fantasy owner you just want to slap that type of player upside the mouth and tell him to get his shit together. This is Chicago, too, where they will be running. Alot. Especially when playing with a lead, which they do. Alot.
Projected Stats: 1268 yards rushing & 11 TDs. 212 yards receiving & 2 TDs.
Lee Evans
I think this kid has loads of talent just waiting to come out even more than last season. I think the key will be JP Losman playing better than last year. That said, I think Losman will play better, and I think Evans will benefit greatly. Lest we forget this guy was 78 yards away from leading the league in receiving yards. Also, that was with Losman drunk for half the season and tossing Evans maybe three to six passes a game. I think with Lynch opening things up and threatening defenses, Evans will put up some awesome numbers.
Projected Stats: 1328 yards & 9 TDs.
Devery Henderson
This honestly is more of a gut feeling. I really liked what i saw from this guy when he stepped into a major roll in the Saints offense. The X factor here is Meachem, though I don't think he'll step up to play #2, not this season. There's been a few lately like Colston, Clayton, etc. but overall, WR isn't an easy position to just step in and play. Especially when I think Henderson is a pretty underrated talent. And hey, it's the Saints offense. I think it's a safer pick than other #2 options is less pass-happy systems, like Bernard Berrian or Marty Booker or even Kevin Curtis, all of which I've seen taken higher than Henderson. I think NO knew what they were doing when they made no bones about Joe Horn's departure. Maybe handcuff Meachem but I think Henderson will start.
Projected Stats: 1102 yards receiving & 8 TDs.
Here are a few names I think are being drafted too high, or will disappoint owners as high picks.
Clinton Portis
Don't get me wrong, I think Portis is super talented, but I question the lingering effects of his recent injury history, and also if Betts will poach some of his workload. They love Betts in Washington and despite my thinking that Portis is more talented, I think it's Betts who fits the type of runner Washington uses in that scheme. I think Portis will get more work, but not enough to warrant the late first round or early second round selections he's been getting. People are picking this guy over the likes of Travis Henry and Laurence Maroney. Tsk tsk, guys.
Projected Stats: 1084 yards rushing & 9 TDs. 189 yards receiving & 0 TDs.
Vince Young
Another player I think is very skilled, but because of the system I'd be weary of taking him. I think they were dealt a major blow when Travis Henry was released. The Titans basically decided to take away most of Young's help, and add no one worth mentioning to make his life easier. Way to be, Tennessee. I think Henry was a vital cog in the machine, because he was a fantastic pass blocker, picked up key first downs, could take a hit and move forward and was a good goal line back. Best of all, he never tapered off. He maintained his high level of play late into games. As the other team tired out, Henry kept going and really put alot of games away. Young is going to miss this guy and I think it'll start to show when rushers stop being scared of the runner and go more after the QB, adn without the pass blocking, he's going to start looking more and more like a QB who is in the Titans offense. Besides, the jury's still out on his arm, which I still don't trust with that team.
Projected Stats: 17 TDs, 14 INTs, 2442 yards passing. 558 yards rushing & 6 TDs.
Thomas Jones
I don't trust that Jets offensive line. Not one bit. Not with a couple guys who have shown capable of stealing more than a few handoffs from Jones. He'll still get the majority but I think he'd need all he could get to put up a decent season here. I thought he was slightly overrated in Chicago. He had good vision and ran hard but I think he'll fall off a little in that Jets system, that's really not built to block for a back like him (or any back, for that matter). I see this all the time in football-a player is shoehorned from one team into another in the hopes they'll perform on the new team like they did on the old one. Then folks wonder why it doesn't happen. Duh. Another gut feeling but I don't expect much. He's been going above guys like Jacobs and Lynch.
Projected Stats: 1151 yards rushing & 5 TDs. 199 yards receiving & 1 TD.
Willis McGahee
This is one change of scenary I don't think will benefit the player. I'm not so sure the trouble with Baltimore was all on Jalam Lewis' shoulders. I think it was partly the line failing ot do it's job. Ogden's become a shell of what he once was and I don't see McGahee as being all that different from Lewis. Teams still aren't afraid of the aerial attack in Baltimore, and they'll be crowding the box, leaving McGahee owners to wonder why, for yet another season.
Projected Stats: 1189 yards rushing & 8 TDs. 108 receiving yards & 0 TDs.
There you have it. I'm actually starting a draft in a few minutes. Just one for fun, since I'm off work today. We'll see how well i practice what i preach. Maybe I'll post some results afterward.
Before I go, I'd like to give a great, big thank you to "annoying draft room guy". Because every time I witness one of these schmucks egging people to "WOMG HURRY UP" or laughing at someone for a draft pick, they almost always follow up by drafting Todd Heap in the 4th round or Donovan McNabb in the second round. Word to the wise-I may take a few extra seconds, but I'm doing it to make sure I have a decnet team every sunday. I don't feel like being out of playoff contention because I struggle to find another starting running back after wasting my second and third round picks on quarterbacks and tight ends.
Oh, and good luck with the Patriots defense, assface, I hope it's worth talking smack and having to start a slot receiver because you pissed away your picks. Smooth move, slick. Get bent.
