I suppose it would kind of me to welcome you to the very first entry in what I'm hoping will become at least a halfway readable blog on fantasy football and sometimes my thoughts on football in general. Or anything. But, mostly fantasy football. So welcome, and by all means thank you for surfing on in. If you play fantasy football, well, that might be why you're here. If you don't, and you enjoy NFL football, go ahead and give it a whirl. Get hooked. Share the thrill of victory, and the bitter tears of defeat. I'm just, you know, really familiar with the tears part. Ahem...
I think a good inaugural entry would be to vent about the average top ten picks in drafts this year. Some names stick out to me as obvious, some not so obvious.
I'll use Yahoo's default ranking list. Not my personal top ten, I'll probably do a write up on that sometime soon.
1. Ladainian Tomlinson. A beast. I've really no squabble with this selection. Tomlinson will net you at the very least 10 points a week. Really nothing more to say. There hasn't been this obvious a first selection in a few years. His week 15, 16 and 17 opponents are Detroit, Denver and Oakland, respectively. Denver has traditionally, short of last season, stopped LT where most teams can't. But Det and Oak are just high scoring games waiting to happen, especially if they're competing for the division with Den. This guy will deliver you points, and the burst ass hairs of anyone who tries to tackle him. LT loves you that much. Or at least you'll think he will. Take him if you have the #1 pick, or weep tears of bitter despair and regret for the next 17 weeks.
Projected Stats: 1710 yards rushing & 21 TDs. 560 yards receiving & 7 TDs.
2. Steven Jackson. An agreeable #2 i would say. The coach loves to put the ball in this guys hands, whether through the air or through a hand off, he doesn't share touches, and he has the raw strength and ability to do exactly what he did last year again. Week 15 he plays the Pack, and the following week he plays the Steelers, and after that Arizona. Pitt might be tough but really, if they want to feed him the ball, they will. I truthfully don't see a return to glory for the Steelers, not yet at least, and i think Stl will play with the lead going into it late. Nothin' like those bright, beautiful and satisfying garbage time points from your starting running back. If I had the #2 pick in a default league, this would be my guy.
Projected Stats: 1546 yards rushing & 15 TDs. 593 yards receiving & 2 TDs.
3. Larry Johnson. I'd be a tiny bit worried here as he recently lost one of his linemen (who i maintain were a superb help in yardage totals) and his fullback (who was very, very good). Also, Trent Green was the only QB on the roster who defenses were concerned about. Despite Huard's performance last season, while very good, I don't think opposing teams will fear him that much. This could spell a lighter season production wise from a player who almost had 1800 yards last year and 17 scores. I also think they're running him way too hard. This is by no means a bad third pick, I'd pick him, but don't expect another season like last year. Especially with Jim Bates anchoring a defense in this division in Denver, with new, big beefy DTs. Pick him with your third but don't be disappointed when his production goes down, which I think it will. He'll still be your juggernaut player, and a very good one. He plays Ten, Det and NYJ in the last three weeks, so if you're big on planning for the playoffs, you might even consider him your second overall pick.
Projected Stats: 1595 yards rushing & 17 TDs. 342 yards receiving & 1 TD.
4. Shaun Alexander. Ah, now this is where it gets interesting. The ups? Well, Seattle likes to pound the rock. Shaun doesn't share touches, and he can still put up numbers as he showed against the SD defense last season in week 16. The downs? He might still be hurt. Which makes this pick difficult if you're drafting early before the season begins. The more i think about it, the more i think they'll return to form this season. I don't think Alexander will perform like he did in 2005 but i think he'll do just fine. Seattle should play some games ahead and I think they'll commit to getting him touches. Another downside, perhaps, would be that in weeks 15, 16 and 17, he plays on the road two of the three, and plays the Ravens, Panthers and Falcons. Not a pleasant thought for owners of Alexander looking for playoff production. Though as I said, week 16 last year may discredit that logic altogether. He's a risk, but is a goal-line beast and Seattle loves to give it to him for scores. However I wouldn't take him with my 4th pick. I'd save that for the next player.
Projected Stats: 1351 yards rushing & 15 TDs. 89 yards receiving & 1 TD.
5. Frank Gore. Ah Frankie, the savior of my team last year. I think the Niners have an underrated blocking line, and I also think this year Alex Smith steps up a little more than last year, especially with his new set of WRs. I see good things from Gore, who is more of a pure talent runner than some more system oriented backs. His opponents are Cincy, Tampa and Cleveland. Tampa being at home. Not too bad, and whether up or down on the scoreboard, they love to get this guy the ball. I think teams will, as the season progresses, start defending the pass more after they stack the box early and get burned. I'd take Gore at 4 if I had the choice. This guy saved my team last year.
Projected Stats: 1696 yards rushing & 9 TDs. 492 yards receiving & 2 TDs.
6. Willie Parker. A pleasant surprise to alot of fantasy owners last season, namely in the touchdown category. He went from 4 TDs the year prior, to 13 rushing alone the next season, and added 3 in the air. The Steelers love the pound the ball and Fast Willie is going to soak up alot of yardage. His last 3 weeks are against the Jags, Rams and Ravens. Jax doesn't look any worse at stopping the run than last year and the Ravens shut him down last year. He's very up and down. Against tough run defenses, he was shut down. His good and bad weeks seemed to alternate, gaining 150+ yards and then gaining only 20-50 the the next week. The only consistent thing about his play was that this happened all year. This I'm sure ticked alot of fantasy owners off last year and it may you, too. Be weary of Jeckyll and his propensity to play like Hyde. And be ready to be very, very pissed off. Off and on. If you had him last year, I'm deeply sorry for your walls or the white patches covering up the results of Parker's bi-weekly performances..
Projected Stats: 1457 yards rushing & 11 TDs. 312 yards receiving & 4 TDs.
7. Joseph Addai. This kid I think is the real deal. Peyton will make sure of that or probably eat him in the locker room, and start at running back the following week. Seriously. Rhodes didn't sign elsewhere, Peyton just ate him. Addai will probably get around 350 carries this year I think and with the Colts offense, i find it hard to believe he'll stay under 4.4 yards a carry. A good pickup I think. A tad risky but I think he'll pay off.
Projected Stats: 1557 yards rushing & 11 TDs. 443 yards receiving & 5 TDs.
8. Rudi Johnson. Possibly the most consistent back you could get after the first few are gone. With Rudi, you get a guy who either has 100 yards, or a TD. Or Both. Only 4 games last season did he fail to run for 100 yards or post a score. Also, he plays the Niners, the Browns and the Phins in the last three weeks. Miami might be tough but hell, his consistency is enough to keep me comfortable. And the Niners and Browns look like 16+ point weeks just waiting to happen. The only downside is while you're sure to get his usual numbers, due to stat poaching by other talented backs who steal catches, you're almost sure to not get higher than usual, either. For the plain ol' Ned Flanders in you, take Rudi. Get the consistency without the risk.
Projected Stats: 1449 yards rushing & 13 TDs. 154 yards receiving & 2 TDs.
9. Brian Westbrook. Possibly the most consistent, safest pick here, aside from his brittle body of course. If he stays healthy, you're getting a guy who will almost be guaranteed to rack up about 1600 yards overall, if not more. I'd take him over Willie Parker just for that. Out of 16 weeks, only during 2 of those weeks was he worse less than 10 points in standard formats. And one of those was the last game of the year where he ran the ball once. So in essence, he only had one week worth less than 10 points where he was worth 7. Gotta love that. For my money, this guy gets taken by me if i want to build a dependable running back corp. Unless he gets hurt, in which case, commence pounding of head into wall. Repeat until next seasons draft.
Projected Stats: 1136 yards rushing & 6 TDs. 745 yards receiving & 5 TDs.
10. Laurence Maroney. A simple formula here. The Pats, who like to run alot, minus Corey Dillon, plus Moss & Stallworth, minus a stacked box when on offense equals a huge year for a guy who is big, fast and cuts back extremely well. I see the Pats using other teams fear of their wide outs to get Maroney goal line touches and i expect to see a year that rivals or surpasses Dillon's full year a few years back. He's just not allowed to help them win a Superbowl, I'll be too pissed off to like him anymore.
Projected Stats: 1534 yards rushing & 14 TDs. 318 yards receiving & 2 TDs.
There you have it. Lengthy, but just what i foresee from the average top ten in most preseason fantasy rankings. If you read it all, you get the gold star of patience and i can't thank you enough for wading through it. Thank you, come again.
