Perhaps I'm going out on a limb here, because knowing how well a defense can stop the run before the season even starts is always hard, but I'll attempt to rank the best running backs for what is usually the first week of fantasy playoffs.Hopefully this will give you a more clear idea of who to choose when draft day rolls around.
Favorable Matchups:
Ladainian Tomlinson vs Tennessee. If there was ever a week for Tomlinson to rack up the points, it would be this one. Tennessee I really don't think did anything to improve that run defense, and tied for a second worst high in rushing touchdowns allowed with 20. Whoever plays this team is in line for at least one rushing touchdown. No brainer here, though anyone who is in position to pick Tomlinson, is going to do so anyway regardless of this matchup.
Projected Stats: 132 yards, 2 TDs. 66 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Rudi Johnson vs STL. Guess who couldn't stop the run last year? Guess who gave up 21 rushing scores on the ground? Guess who didn't do nearly enough to fix that? Answer: Begins with "R", ends with "ams". Yup, the Rams rushing defense didn't exist last year. They put the corners in at DT, the linebackers at safety, and the coach at DE. Or that's what you'd think. Rudi is incredibly consistent and I am comfortable guaranteeing at least one rushing score.
Projected Stats: 156 yards, 2 TDs. 17 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Steven Jackson vs Cincinnati. This one is a bit of a gut feeling. I think Jackson will be relied on to carve up the Cincy D. They traditionally give up big runs on D and I think STL is going to get a lead going into the half, and later on the late 3rd and early 4th quarters it should be a close game, and they'll just let Jackson pound away. He'll tire out the Cin D and put the game away. They won't be able to stop him. This will be a late-season battle of the running backs.
Projected Stats: 123 yards, 1 TD. 65 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Shaun Alexander vs Arizona. Don't expect any home runs out of Alexander for this matchup, as Arizona is more prone to letting teams consistently pound away for yards aside from letting runners break 20-30 yard gains. Attribute this to Adrian Wilson mostly, but AZ still won't be able to stop a Seattle team who I think will let Alexander come back to the form he's shown most of these years. I think they'll get a healthy lead and let Alexander take alot of handoffs off-tackle for 5-6 yard gains.
Projected Stats: 111 yards, 2 TDs. 12 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Brian Westbrook vs NYG. Like I've written before, Westbrook is as consistent as any starting back out there. The guy will put up at least 10 points for you almost weekly. The Giants, while a team who can keep a runner to almost under 4 yards a carry, and limit long runs, they to me look to tire out easily near the end of the game. Also, they give up rushing touchdowns, big time. They were one of the absolute worst teams last season for stopping rushing touchdowns, but only gave up 8 runs of 20 yards or more all season. This speaks to a defense that slowly gets worn out, and tired, and lets a rusher take one for 6. I don't think they'll be able to stop Westbrook, who I've always noticed doesn't get tired towards the end of games.
Projected Stats: 88 yards rushing, 2 TDs. 65 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Unfavorable Matchups:
Larry Johnson vs Denver. This late in the season, after Herm Edwards has just ran you probably about 320-330 times already, you're facing a team that has stacked itself with huge bodies in the middle, and is running a Bates oriented defense? Without your blocking FB? And the two linemen who opened up massive holes for you in the past? Don't expect much. Look for Denver to stack the box and let the secondary take care of any passes Huard or Croyle try to make. After losing one of his best linemen in 2006 Johnson's yards per carry dropped a full yard. This year doesn't look so great and this week might be the week he shows how tired Edwards has made him.
Projected Stats: 89 yards, 0 TDs. 9 receiving yards, 0 TDs.
Frank Gore vs Minnesota. While i maintain Gore is one of the most purely talented runners in the business, Minnesota has prided itself in completely shutting down some of the games best backs. It all begins on the line with a pair of mountains at DT. They allow the linebackers to fly around and make plays and foil any rushing attempts. While they're not as good a red zone rushing D as some teams, like maybe Baltimore, they can keep the yardage very low and if they get a lead, they can really take the opposing runner out of the game. Minnesota might well get a lead here.
Projected Stats: 64 yards, 0 TDs. 23 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Joseph Addai vs Baltimore. This might be a nightmare for Addai owners. Baltimore shows no signs of slowing down and were arguably the best rushing defense last season. While he's lost his ability to shed blockers, Ray Lewis has gotten some great DTs in front of him that allow him to get to the ball carrier like he used to, and the whole defense just work so cohesively that a 3 yard per carry average isn't uncommon. As good as Addai is, I think they'll force Peyton to resort to trying to beat them with his arm, and running draws, which won't work on a Baltimore defense that's too fast and too huge up the middle.
Projected Stats: 68 yards, 0 TDs. 19 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Willie Parker vs New England. I don't think "Fast Willy" will be able to run around this defense. I think ol' Billy B shows up and dares Roethlisberger to beat them with his arm. I can see eight guys in the box regularly and NE getting a lead, allowing the Pats D to chase down Parker even more, who has traditionally sputtered against tough run defenses. The last real tough run D he performed well against to memory, would be the first week of last season against Miami. Other than that, the past two years, i don't really recall any. This guy gets his yards in massive chunks every other week against weak defenses.
Projected Stats: 64 yards, 0 TDs. 9 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Marshawn Lynch vs Miami. While I think Lynch will be a really productive back this year, I think he'll run into a wall in Miami. I think they'll stone him early and often, forcing Losman to beat them with his arm. Miami might well be the toughest D to break a big one against, and they rarely give up rushing touchdowns. This game has Losman-to-Evans written all over it. Look for Lynch to do alot of pass blocking and not much point producing.
Projected Stats: 54 yards, 0 TDs. 13 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
I'll put together another list for Week 15, when even more fantasy playoffs will be beginning. Hope this has been helpful.
