Also, no week 17 predictions, not until week 17 rolls around and I get a clearer picture on who is sitting and who isn't.
I've broken down the following backs into four categories.
Playoff Heroes: The players who can win you championships. Guys who are great backs, who have equally great matchups.
Solid Producers: The second-tier runners(not talent wise, but purely by opponent) who won't destroy your competition by themselves but who have good matchups and can rack up points and win you games when coupled with another solid runner.
Risky Picks: Players who don't have favorable matchups when you need them. Not wise to rely on players like this for fantasy wins.
Rotten Apples: The players who have terrible fantasy playoff opponents. To be avoided like the plague. Don't count on these players to do much but hinder your chances of winning it all.
Good news is, no one runner has three straight unfavorable matchups, though that might be the only plus for some guys. I am also using a scoring system that allows 10 yards receiving or rushing per point, and 6 points per TD. Let's get to it...
-Playoff Heroes-
Steven Jackson
Favorable Matchups: 3 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs CIN-123 yards, 1 TD. 65 yards rec 1 TD = 36pts
vs GB-95 yards 2 TD. 64 yards rec 1 TD = 33 pts
vs PIT-71 yards, 0 TD. 57 yards rec 1 TD = 18pts
Avg Pts per Week: 29
As if there were any fears about drafting Jackson to begin with, let this ease your mind. Where Pittsburgh would usually be a catastrophe for most runners, I can't see Jackson being stopped-he's just too strong for them. Pit can stop quick runners with a 3-4 and quick linebackers, but Jackson can pound the rock along with his speed, and has shown he doesn't wear thin, as he can rack up yardage at the end of the season just like any other span. The only thing to be weary of, is that it is Pittsburgh after all, and while he may rack up about 18 points, it might not be the matchup you were looking for in that ever important championship game. But hey, those are good points, and that's why you have two running backs.
Joseph Addai
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs BAL-68 yards 0 TD. 19 rec yards 0 TD = 7 pts
vs OAK-130 yards, 2 TD. 35 rec yards 0 TD = 28
vs HOU-153 yards 3 TD. 21 rec yards 0 TD = 35 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 28
Addai might well end up the best possible playoff performer on this list. Sure, you and he must endure the dreaded Ravens defense, but there's a reward-The Raiders and Texans defense. I don't know if there's another back with a better set of matchups, short of maybe the next player on the list, but even he doesn't have the luxury of running behind the Colts line and into a soft defense that's only stacking 7, maybe even 6 guys due to the pure terror they feel for Peyton's arm. If Addai rolls around on draft boards, and you're stuck with a choice between him, and a seemingly equal back, let this help you decide.
Rudi Johnson
Fav Matchups: 3 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs STL-156 yards, 2 TD. 17 rec yards, 0 TD = 28pts
vs SF-101 yards,1 TD. 22 rec yards, 0 TD = 18 pts
vs CLE-122 yards, 2 TD. 9 rec yards, 0 TD = 24 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 23
Rudi, who is one of the most consistent backs in fantasy football, looks to have what might be the most consistently easy schedule during your league playoffs. No team can stop the run, and Rudi is a player who dips below 100 yards, or doesn't get a TD, very very rarely. And I have my doubts it'll be against any of these teams. Not this late in the season when he's just running straight at you and draining your will to tackle him. I can't foresee him going below 16 points in any of these games. The Bengals should get good leads on all three teams and Rudi should run the clock down. Don't hesitate on ol' Rudi when his name pops up. If you can't decide between Rudi or Fast Willie, or not-so-fast Willis, I hope this can help you.
Brian Westbrook
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs NYG-88 yards, 2 TD. 65 yards rec 0 TD = 26 pts
vs DAL-64 yards, 0 TD. 38 yards rec, 0 TD. = 9 pts
vs NO-100 yards, 1 TD. 65 rec yards, 1 yd = 28 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 21
I can see Dallas focusing on stopping him and letting the air attack tear them apart, but I can also see the NO game looking like a game of Madden, with both offenses scoring at will. This should be a huge day for Westbrook, who I see breaking off huge runs after catches and lots of runs for big gains. I'm going to say 65 rec yards. If you can pair Westbrook with someone else in this tier, you will have it made.
-Solid Producers-
Travis Henry
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs KC-92 yards, 1 TD. 33 rec yards, 0 TD = 18 pts
vs HOU-127 yards, 2 TD. 27 rec yards 0 TD = 26 pts
vs SD-79 yards, 1 TD. 9 rec yards, 0 TD = 13 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 19 pts
Obviously the only thing holding Henry back is a tough matchup against one of the most difficult teams to run against. Blessed with opponents in KC and Houston who practically give away yards-against, SD won't be so easy. I still see a TD but not alot of yardage, and wihle 13 might be lucky for some, it might be unlucky for you in your most important game. The Broncos will score on the Bolts, and I think it'll be Henry pushing the pile forward with his bowling ball running style. I just see a shootout here and more play action than actual running plays in the second half. Take Henry if you can get a good week 16 matchup in another runner.
Marshawn Lynch
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs MIA-54 yards, 0 TD. 13 rec yards, 0 TD = 6
vs CLE-110 yards, 1 TD. 53 yards rec 1 TD = 28
vs NYG-101 yards, 1 TD. 23 yards rec 0 TD = 18
Avg Pts per Week: 17
I think Lynch is the most NFL-ready back coming out of college, and he may be a real sleeper pick. He will get drafted, yes, but has alot better playoff matchups than some guys who will have their names clicked before his. Miami will be tough, but Cleveland and the Giants could be point factories. I think this late in the year teams will be catching on that Losman-to-Evans isn't a fluke and is a direct result of Lynch occupying most of the front eight's attention. I also see Buffalo getting a lead against CLE and I think NY also.
Brandon Jacobs
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs PHI-64 yards, 0 TD. 20 rec yards 0 TD = 8 pts
vs WAS-111 yards, 1 TD. 41 yards rec 0 TD = 21 pts
vs BUF-112 yards, 1 TD. 26 yards rec 0 TD = 19 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 16
I see big things from this guy, and I also see two nice matchups in the final weeks. If you can snag Jacobs as a third running back, he might prove alot more worthy than some receiver who may or may not produce near these numbers during weeks 15 and 16. Consider him a solid backup to whatever back has a bad matchup. He could be the guy who saves your team and you thank yourself later for drafting.
Cedric Benson
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs WAS-127 yards, 1 TD. 40 rec yards 0 TD = 22
vs MIN-71 yards 0 TD. 21 rec yards 0 TD = 9
vs GB-92 yards, 1 TD. 16 rec yards 0 TD = 16 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 15
The Bears believe in Benson and so do I. I love this kids motor, he hits holes like a bullet and refuses to go down. Minnesota might be a tough opponent but Washington and Green Bay should be a waltz for Benson, who will abuse them in garbage time. I can see a goal line TD in each contest. The Bears defense will be his best friend, getting turnovers and upping his carries in every game. A lead also doesn't hurt, as Benson will kill the clock as well and that's always nice to see as a fantasy owner.
Thomas Jones
Fav Matchups: 2 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs CLE-89 yards 1 TD. 22 yards rec 0 TD = 16
vs NE-45 yards 1 TD. 8 rec yards 0 TD = 10
vs TEN- 81 yards 1 TD. 21 rec yards 0 TD = 16
Avg Pts per Week: 14
I'm still not a fan of this acquisition but here I am suggesting him. I just have a feeling he'll pick it up here with some great matchups. I don't think he'll get alot of yards with that line, but he's strong as an ox and I can see him pounding goal line touchdowns in every game, even against the Pats. I think the Jets air attack is underrated and will get down the field, and they won't hesitate to give Jones multiple chances to pound it for 6. He's got great vision, and can put his head down and drag a few guys. The Browns and Titans are easy ones even for this line.
-Risky Picks-
Laurence Maroney
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs PIT-75 yards 0 TD. 34 rec yards 0 TD = 10
vs NYJ-119 yards, 2 TD. 24 yards rec 0 TD = 25
vs MIA-71 yards, 0 TD. 16 rec yards 0 TD = 8
Avg Pts per Week: 14
I know I know, Maroney's the sexy pick right now as the newest superstar runner, and he will be very solid and will establish himself as a first round back for the next fantasy year, but these three weeks may not be the best way to close out a season. So be careful about making him the cornerstone of your offense. He ends up averaging as much as Jones, above, but faces a very tough Miami defense in most teams championship weeks. If you made it this far, you were lucky to get past week 14 with him facing the Steelers. Not a good three week period for the new Pats runner. He, to me, falls to the "Risky Picks" category due to his week 16 opponent, one of the hardest teams to run against.
Shaun Alexander
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs ARI-111 yards, 2 TD, 12 rec yards, 0 TD = 24 pts
vs CAR-98 yards 0 TD. 11 yards rec 0 TD = 10 pts
vs BAL-56 yards, 0 TD. 18 rec yards 0 TD = 6 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 13
I'm just not liking the Caroline matchup. I think they'll stack the box and attack him all day long. Alexander's success usually is followed with a team victory and I think they'll be one of many teams who realize this. I think they've got the talent and quickness to penetrate and stop runs early, forcing third and longs. If Seattle will score, I don't see SA being the one doing it this game. The Baltimore game is also just a nightmare if you've made it to your playoff finals and see this. Hey, Arizona should let him walk all over them...and that's good...right?
Frank Gore
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs MIN-64 yards, 0 TD. 23 rec yards 0 TD = 8 pts
vs CIN-115 yards 1 TD. 48 rec yards 0 TD = 21 pts
vs TB-76 yards, 0 TD. 28 yards rec, 0 TD = 9 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 12
I know, Gore's awesome. He's a top 5 pick, and I think fantasy aside he's one of the most purely talented runners in the game today. But this is just the nature of playoff matchups-he doesn't have a very good set of them. Minnesota is a wall and TB I think will be back in top form. Add to this that he's not always the far and away choice for goal line looks, though he gets his share. Another thing to keep in mind is the Niners offense. Smith has been given plenty of weapons in Jackson, Lelie and Vernon Davis, all capable of getting into the endzone. Gore might not be called upon to do it all when facing a harsh rushing defense. If you just can't overlook him, snatch up a good second runner for those tough weeks 14 and 16.
Willie Parker
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs NE-64 yards, 0 TD. 9 rec yards 0 TD = 6 pts
vs JAX-45 yards, 0 TD. 33 rec yards ,0 TD = 7 pts
vs STL-117 yards 2 TD. 24 rec yards 0 TD = 25 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 12
I've said it before, I'll say it again-Willie Parker struggles mightily vs stout run defenses. And he happens to face two of the toughest in weeks 14 and 15. Games like those two, could send you packin' early and isn't that really the one thing above all else you should avoid doing? When it's decision making time, why not let Willie and his inconsistency and troubles with tough defenses become someone elses problem? Or, if you're feeling lucky, you could take him in hopes you make it to the finals, where Parker faces the saddest run defense in all the league. The Rams. It's up to you how you want to play it. Trade bait? I'm just sayin...
-Rotten Apples-
Willis McGahee
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs IND-96 yards 1 TD. 8 rec yards, 0 TD = 15 pts
vs MIA-52 yards, 0 TD. 14 rec yards, 0 TD = 6
vs SEA-92 yards, 0 TD. 11 rec yards, 0 TD = 10
Avg Pts per Week: 10
I've always attributed the fall of Jamal Lewis to the line and the quarterback. Steve McNair doesn't have a gun that scares opposing secondaries, and the former pillar of the Ravens line, Jonathan Ogden, has sine fallen from grace and isn't what he used to be. Teams aren't letting Baltimore runners get 3 free yards before contact anymore. Willis McGahee is no savior. He's shown he can't produce with 8 men in the box daring the team to pass and while Baltimore should improve his numbers, I still don't trust him. Miami should be a nightmare. I don't like how Thomas and Taylor match up against the Ravens line. They'll penetrate the LOS all day long. The game that puts McGahee in the "Rotten Apples" category to me is week 16. Seattle is a team I think who will be geared to stopping the run. Last season they gave up yardage but could limit touchdowns to under one per game, and with Kerney and Peterson now in the fold, I think they'll be a good run stopping team, giving up less yardage than previous years. I don't think this bodes well for a championship game matchup for McGahee.
Ronnie Brown
Fav Matchups: 1 of 3
Projected Stats:
vs BUF-110 yards, 0 TD, 63 rec yards 0 TD= 17 pts
vs BAL-44 yards, 0 TD. 9 rec yards, 0 TD = 4 pts
vs NE-70 yards, 0 TD. 18 rec yards 0 TD = 8 pts
Avg Pts per Week: 9
Brown's been another trendy pick lately, due to Trent Green showing up in a Phins uni, and Cam Cameron being hired to supposedly do with Brown what he did with Tomlinson. Only, I ain't buyin it. It'll take more than oen offseason to do anything close to that and I think alot of people are falling for the ol' offseason shenanigans. Every player is better, every tired player is rested, every coach will improve everything he should, yadda yadda blaaaah. Few things I see wrong-Miami's line is no where near as talened as the Chargers line. Their FB is good but no where near Lorenzo Neal, who is for my money, tops in the biz. Trent Green is aging and hasn't been the same since the concussion, and now has to play in the worst offense he's ever played in, and last but certainly not least-Brown is not Tomlinson. Add to this, that he faces Baltimore and New England in week 15 and 16, and you've got yourself a player you drafted high and will be benching during your playoffs. I wouldn't waste this pick when I can get someone like Henry or Westbrook.
