First off, my apologies for being so late with this. I'll get right to it.
Favorable Matchups:
Joseph Addai vs HOU. I don't think the Texans will be as bad as they were. They're slowly but surely improving. However, don't be afraid to put all your hopes and dreams and championship aspirations on the shoulders of Addai. The Texans just can't compete with the Colts. Indy's got their number. I expect a huge lead early and alot of running. Addai is going to carve up this D and i expect Tomlinson type numbers. Hey, if you've got Demeco Ryans as a single D player, start him, he'll be tackling Addai alot after 4-7 yard gains. Come the third quarter, Addai will start running all over the place. This has blowout written all over it, and Peyton seems to be easing off of his constant desire to pass inside the 8 yard line on all three downs. And that's nothing but good for Indy running backs. Or in this case, back. Bye bye Rhodes, hello points!
Projected Stats: 153 yards, 3 TDs. 21 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Brian Westbrook vs NO. New Orleans will try, but New Orleans will fail when it comes to containing Westbrook. I've said for awhile now, if NO wants to have real success of any kind, they need to start upgrading that defense. You can run on them, you can pass on them, and in the midst of everything last season, that got overlooked pretty badly. That offense was almost explosive enough to cancel out the bad defense. Almost. They added more players but none of them are convincing me they've remedied the problem. Enter, Westbrook. This might turn into a shootout, but regardless, they still love to put the ball in this guys hands. Not much to explain, I can just see him running and catching all over, all day long. If anything, he had one of his worst games last season against the Saints, however I can't see it happening twice. This late in the year, with the Eagles battling for playoff spots most likely. Crunch time is Westbrook time.
Projected Stats: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD. 65 yards receiving, 1 TD.
Larry Johnson vs DET. Regardless of everything that's been said, whispered, rumored and written about LJ, the biggest thing you can look forward to (if he's still a Chief) would be this game. The Lions aren't as horrible at stopping the run as you might assume, but they're no where near good. And they give up TDs. I attribute this to them being so dog tired near the end of games from teams killing the clock. But alas, even if this is close, Herm Edwards is going to pound the ball. Maybe not early, but in the second half, LJ will work his ass off. The second KC gets a lead it's all LJ. This is a defense that allows TDs badly as it is, facing a team that has linemen who still know how to help the runner get scores.
Projected Stats: 120 yards, 2 TDs. 18 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Willie Parker vs STL. If you've made it this far, Willie will carry you the rest of the way. Like I've said before, this is a player who absolutely thrives on matchups. A team like STL is almost the perfect chance for Parker. STL is not built to stop fast runners. Fast Willy is going to have a field day here. This will be at STL as well, and the turf is going to make things even worse for the Rams. The only thing holding back his yardage totals will be the fact the Rams will stay in it and keep it close. Still, if you've made it this far and this is your championship week, Willy may win you a title.
Projected Stats: 117 yards, 2 TDs. 24 receiving yards, 0 TDs.
Rudi Johnson vs CLE. Mr. Consistency will live up the moniker that I just gave him, right now. But hey, it's accurate. More accurate than Vince Young. Ba dum tssss. I kid, I kid. Anyway, if you were ever looking for a guy who you didn't have to worry about, it's probably Rudi. And the Cleveland defense, suffice to say, doesn't have to worry either. They know they won't stop him. I expect the usual Cincy shallacking in this one. Get good gains tossing, let Rudi get the tough first downs, get a lead throwing, maybe get Rudi a rushing score in the first half, then run all game long after that. He'll tire them out. He's built for that, that's part of his success. He just runs right at you, hard, until you're too tired to stop him, and then he gets his classic big runs late in the game. Gotta love him. CLE didn't allow more than 15 rushing scores last year but that won't stop Mr. Consistency. In two games last year vs the Browns, he had over 200 yards and 3 scores.
Projected Stats: 122 yards, 2 TDs. 9 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Unfavorable Matchups:
Frank Gore vs TB. Be weary of that TB defense. They haven't gone away yet, and they can still keep the averages low and the TD count even lower. This was a team who suffered pretty much solely from being on the field way too much and having teams run out the clock against them. They've improved the defense, and I like the offensive adjustments as well. Garcia should work well with his new cast and Caddy should be back in form with some offensive line fix ups. I can see the TB defense, while a little aged, playing like they used to against the run. Gore will be a beast, however I believe they'll hold him in check this week. They can match his speed and have the DTs that will let the linebackers do their jobs. They're going to dare Smith to beat them in the air and while it's arguable if he will or not, that I think will be the plan.This won't be the production you need in what might be your championship game.
Projected Stats: 76 yards, 0 TDs. 28 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Travis Henry vs SD. Again like Gore, I think Henry will own defenses this season. Although I've gotta play the odds and say SD will stop him juuuust enough to make this matchup unfavorable. Henry has shown though, that he can wear down defenses and play all season long, but SD has a great run defense and I think they'll stack the box, hoping Cutler won't beat them in the air. It'll be on the road so it'll be tough. I can't see a hundred yard game but I do see a score. He's not as unfavorable as some star backs but still, this is your big game. You need points, bad.
Projected Stats: 79 yards rushing, 1 TD. 9 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Shaun Alexander vs BAL. Alexander makes a living behind his linemen, and wearing down opponents. Baltimore will be relentless, stacking eight men in the box almost every running down. Ray Lewis will terrorize Alexander, matching his speed and holding him while others can jump on the pile. Don't expect much yardage, but do expect a long day for Shaun. I just don't like the way his running style matches up with the Ravens DTs and linebackers, and add to that, they're already a beast of a run stopping defense.
Projected Stats: 56 yards, 0 TDs. 18 yards receiving, 0 TDs.
Ronnie Brown vs NE. NE is just a bad deal. No other way to describe it, really. They hold the averages under 4 and can limit long runs over 20 yards to almost 1 ever 3 games. Add to that, the line in Miami overall isn't really that much improved, and with Trent Green who has quietly played horribly since his concussion and now playing on a slightly below average offense, I can't see Brown doing anything of significance during your most important match.
Projected Stats: 70 yards, 0 TDs. 18 receiving yards, 0 TDs.
Laurence Maroney vs MIA. Likewise for Maroney, he faces one of the toughest run defenses in the entire league, and by far the hardest to break long runs against. I think Ol' Billy B just lets Brady handle this one. Maroney will try, but get stuffed at the line constantly and I don't know if he can bounce to the far, far outside with any consistency. Miami can also keep runners out of the endzone very well. Don't expect a huge game even if NE gets a lead. Miami will stop them. He's a big bruiser, but so are they. Don't be confident in this matchup.
Projected Stats: 71 yards, 0 TDs. 16 receiving yards, 0 TDs.
Best RBBC
McAllister/Bush vs PHI. By default, really, as no one else had a matchup that was even remotely close to good. Even this one I don't think is one to play. Maybe just avoid anyone in a committee for this week.
That's about it. Again i'm sorry for taking so long, but I will put up a week 17 entry soon, because that's "rest your starter" week and can get a little complicated. Also I'll break down the players mentioned and grade how effective, risky, rewarding and disappointing they'll be during weeks 15-17, your most important fantasy football weeks and come up with the best and worst picks for those tough draft decisions.
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